湖北林业科技

After Three Gorges Reservoir is impounding，a fall- off zone with an elevation difference of30m is formed， and a staggered buffer zone is obtained by horizontal expansion of150m based on the full water level of175m . The land use of buffer zone is complicated. This study analyzes the development model of the upstream buffer zone in the past20 years by studying the land use change of the upstream buffer zone in the past20years . The possibility of land use change in the next20years is predicted by Markov function，and some suggestions are put forward for the future planning and devel- opment direction of the upstream region . The results showed that：①The upstream continues to grasp the agricultural land in the development process and could continue to develop according to the current development trend；②In terms of ecolo- gy，the proportion of forest，scrub，grassland and other land types related to the ecological environment had increased. The current development policy was favorable to the ecological environment. However，due to the increase of water area，bare rock has increased and the risk of soil erosion has increased. ③Economic development were closely related to urbaniza- tion . The proportion of urban and rural construction land and roads is on the rise，and the upstream economic situation was promising. In general，development and construction can continue according to the development mode from2000to2020， but on this basis，more attention should be paid to the coordinated development of economy and environment，the con- struction of forest city as far as possible，and the soil and water conservation of land on both sides of the strait should be strengthened through engineering slope protection，ecological slope protection and other technologies .